By leaving the GOP nomination in a timely fashion, Mitt Romney is poised to win with or without a spot on the McCain ticket. Though Romney is certainly hoping to join the ticket as John McCain's presidential running mate, if he is not chosen, he is clearly the leading candidate going into the next election cycle, whether that is in four or eight years.

CHOOSING ROMNEY

John McCain won the presidential nomination fair and square. The problem for McCain is that he didn't win over conservatives, he split them between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. In a sense, McCain's win happened only because he split the financial and evangelical base of the party. McCain clearly won the national defense component of the party, but that will not win him the White House -- especially during a time of an unpopular war.

Times have changed since the last primary for John McCain. America has slipped into financial chaos. If McCain were to run today against Mitt Romney, a well known financial fix-it man, Romney would win two out of three contests. Earlier the Iraq War was still front and center, whereas today the economy is the most important issue to voters. McCain has many choices in a vice presidential selection, but none so credible in speaking on financial matters than Mitt Romney.

In short, McCain can choose a social conservative along the lines of Mike Huckabee or Sam Brownback for his running mate and try to recapture the far right-wing of the party or he can choose a social conservative who looses many on the far right, but competes strongly in the middle in states such as Massachusetts and Michigan.

One can argue that by choosing Huckabee or Brownback, McCain can capture a few of the southern states such as Georgia or Tennessee, but those states are not considered big prizes in the overall scheme of things. For instance, by selecting Huckabee, McCain might win in Georgia, but that would probably cost him deeply in the southwestern states such as Arizona and Nevada where McCain must have the Mormon vote to win the day. In short, he would pick up one state and probably lose another.

The same would be true for Brownback who as a very conservative Christian may also be seen as anti-Mormon. Brownback's lack of national name recognition is also a problem for McCain.

Governor Charlie Crist is seen as a much better candidate for the VP spot, but his association nets no improvement for McCain. He also has some significant negatives.

When Romney supporter Jeb Bush and other popular personalities stayed on the sidelines, Crist made a late endorsement of McCain. Romney supporters may hold a grudge as that move was seen by many as what stopped Romney's momentum going into California. Many were shocked that the leader of the GOP in Florida would endorse any candidate in a close field and would be seen in retrospect as a payoff by Crist to win the VP nomination should he ascend to that position on the ticket.

The obvious choice would be to select Crist and hope to persuade those in the southwest that he is a man that will represent their interests. Clearly, Crist has conservative credentials and would make a good choice, but he has one glaring weakness. He once knew a girl named Rebecca O'Dell Wharrie -- and we mean "knew" in the Biblical sense.

During the last gubernatorial race, a fax was sent to the local newspapers anonymously showing that in 1989 Crist had signed an affidavit disclaiming the parentage of child being place up for adoption by Wharrie. The obvious issue is that he had been engaged in sexual activity with Wharrie only 18 years earlier and was a putative father to a child outside of any marriage. Wharrie was a Republican operative at the time.

The question of whether Crist was actually the father was put into play in the campaign. Though Crist was able to overcome the slur in Florida's election, it would not help his case in a national election as it tends to show that Crist was irresponsible in his personal life and perhaps even abandoned a child and that child's mother in favor of politics.

That leaves only one squeaky-clean candidate left standing. Mitt Romney.

It is clear that Romney was unable to hold his weight in the south when running against Mike Huckabee. Many far-right wing evangelicals have a great deal of distrust for Romney who they assert changed his position on abortion and cannot be trusted; however, the real issue is Romney's religion. As a Mormon, far-right wing evangelicals have been taught that he is closer to the devil than Hugh Hefner. Romney cannot be counted on to win over most of these voters. Nothing he does or says short of joining the Southern Baptist Convention will sway this group. Even then, he would be accused of flip-flopping on religion. As a life-long member of the Mormon faith, Romney is more likely to fly to North Korea and make a pledge of allegiance to a lunatic than change his family's faith.

That leaves McCain with a very messy selection. Choosing a social conservative will lose the southwest and offend many in the middle. Choosing Crist ends up being neutral and potentially explosive and choosing Romney looses the far-right Republicans.

Romney has few if any skeletons in his closet. In many ways he was the perfect, and as a result sometimes boring, candidate. He has a long-term marriage, a good family, a moral foundation, an excellent leadership track record and executive experience. The only drawbacks are his religion and his change of position on abortion.

On abortion, his record as a pro-life advocate is strong, but he had a pro-choice position while he was running for governor of Massachusetts. Like Ronald Reagan, when Romney was faced with actual policy decisions that would result in the loss of a child's life, he ultimately chose life and has not turned away since. The abortion tag is a red-herring. The only real problem for Romney is his religion.

Does McCain dare to lose the far-right of his party in exchange for winning over more people in the middle?

McCain's choice will be made by Barrack Obama. Depending upon who Obama picks as a running mate, McCain may have few other choices than Romney.

Obama will have to choose a running mate with military experience who is also a middle-ground conservative. Obama will have difficulty is swaying enough people in the middle over to his side during the general election. Like Romney's religion, Obama's color is going to lose him votes. It may not be a significant number of votes, but Obama is dealing with the same issue of bigotry as Romney. On the one hand, some voters in the white Democratic population will not trust a black man who has not served in the military and has a Muslim name. Likewise, some Republicans will not trust a Mormon. In both cases, competency and character cannot overcome strongly held bigoted beliefs of some voters.

But Obama is leading his ticket whereas Romney would only be on the second spot on McCain's ticket. If McCain can convince the far-right that he will protect abortion rights and keep the Mormon in mostly an administrative role, he will win over more of the right than Obama will lose in the middle. In short, McCain will win the Democrats in the middle who will not vote for Obama because of his lack of military experience, Muslim name and the color of his skin. Obama's selection of a number-two man with military experience will not win the day because that person is no better or worse than the dozens of generals who can advise Obama. McCain's military experience would win the day because he would be the Commander-in-Chief.

Some may argue that Romney's financial background is no better than the President's dozens of financial advisers, but that is where the argument against Romney breaks down because Romney is, in fact, better than the dozens of financial advisers. Not only is he a triple-A financial genius, but he is also a man who has sat in the executive seat and has a proven track record of turning large governments and dysfunctional organizations around. Very few "advisers" have that real life experience.

As the economy is the top election issue, Romney's position on the ticket would be clear. It will be his job to fix the economy as McCain works on the substantial problems with foreign policy and military conflicts -- which is his primary role as the Commander-in-Chief. As Romney turns the economy around, he builds the resume that he needs to ascend to the presidency in due time. In the interim, he serves diligently under President McCain.

Some may question whether a strong leader like Romney has enough humility to support a former rival. This question was answered when Romney exited the nomination process in a timely fashion. Only a few short weeks later he endorsed McCain and has been a strong advocate and fundraiser for his candidacy ever since. Huckabee is a comical contrast of loyalty. The message from Romney to McCain was simple: "I will follow and support until it is my time"

IF ROMNEY IS LEFT OFF

If Mitt Romney is left off the ticket, he will be one of McCain's strongest campaigners. He will use the opportunity to meet dedicated Republicans across the nation and use these relationships to solidify his future candidacy. Romney convinced many through the years that he could be trusted and relied upon, but his name recognition and unfamiliarity to the masses caused the larger voting population to withhold their support. With support thrown behind the candidate, he will be the obvious champion going into the next election cycle. This is the same strategy McCain used and it paid back dividends resulting in his current nomination.

No one can predict the future, but without Romney on the ticket, it appears more likely than not that McCain will have difficulty in getting into the White House. Short of getting a populist running mate of substance like Colin Powell, McCain's other choices appear weak in national name recognition and political power. If that proves out, and Romney is not selected as the running mate, then Romney is positioned to be the putative nominee in four years.

Assuming Obama prevails, then entering into the presidency with so many significant problems, Senator Obama will need the skills of men like Mitt Romney, but few will want to associate with a candidate who is so skinny on experience. No one doubts the Senator's brain power, but he doesn't have the true know-how. If he is ultimately elected, his lack of experience in such difficult times will result in two years of crisis management and two years of rebuilding. Sadly for Americans, without the skillset and experience of men like Romney, his learning-as-you-go approach will be inadequate and he will be facing a very angry public in four years, regardless if he eventually "gets it."

Facing even worse economic times, Romney will be the putative candidate of the general electorate as few if any men of financial weight will come out from the Democratic party in four years. Given four years, Romney will be in the driver's seat as he can pick apart the economic policies of Obama from an observer's perspective -- where he can do no wrong while rebuilding the Republican base.

Romney's job, if not VP, is to put the party back together again. His reward will be the job to fix the economy starting in 2012.