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Mike Huckabee has run his campaign and his political future into a deadend
No one can fault an all-or-nothing strategy in sports. We all enjoy watching a football team go for the win rather than the tie. The difference between sports and politics, however, is in Sports you always have another season.
Second chances don't often happen in national politics. For Mike Huckabee, he had a chance to be part of a Republican presidential ticket or perhaps a cabinet position. Instead, now he will be reduced to a regional broker of far-right interests. That is a sad ending to a promising political career.
It probably started and ended for Mike Huckabee by his foolish attack on President George Bush's foreign policy. Making an enemy of a sitting president during a time of war is usually a Democratic tactic to gain supporters. Apparently, someone in the Huckabee tent decided that he could win over some marginal voters from the Paul campaign.
If one were to examine a moment of change and the public's retreat from the Huckabee surge, this was it.
Of course, Mitt Romney, a skilled businessman and politician, saw an opening in the line that he could not ignore. Huckabee had set himself up for this one and he has no one to blame but himself. If this was his only mistake, one could probably forgive him and his numbers would have stayed steady, but then he made the foolish decision to attack Mitt Romney through shadowed commercials touting his Christianity -- which was a religious attack on a man who had not made religion part of his platform.
In response, he gave Mitt Romney a national platform to showcase a speech that will likely be heralded as an important American moment in politics. He gave his main competition more exposure than millions of Romney's dollars could have purchased. If Mitt Romney could deliver a timely speech and show his presidential manner, then Huckabee would be in serious trouble.
Of course, that is exactly what Romney did, and you could almost see the stakes in Huckabee's camp starting to pull up. Romney was lauded by all national commentators as achieving a presidential moment in front of the cameras. Those who derided Romney were thrown under the bus as religious bigots -- and some proved that they were. Sadly, Huckabee was on the wrong side of wrong and countered with a Christmas advertisement featuring a suggestive window pane that looked to every sensible person as a cross. A clear sign that Huckabee was trying to run as the "Christian" candidate.
That is when Huckabee even started losing regular Christian folk who have seen this type of hypocritical showing of faith for personal gain too many times before. To many Conservative Christians, such show-boating is for TV ministers, not true men of the cloth.
Some of the departing voters flocked to Thompson, but too many started committing to Romney. Huckabee's "strategy" dropped his lead over Romney from double digits to single digits, and then to a virtual tie -- where it stands now, but pollsters are projecting Huckabee's defeat as his numbers are seriously falling.
Astutely, Romney continued to drive home his message and began his "comparative" ads in Iowa by contrasting political records. Huckabee called the attacks inaccurate or misrepresentations, but yet, when challenged by the media, he could only continue to step backwards.
Then, normal Iowans not affiliated with the far right religious movement, decided to take a step backwards to look nationally to what was happening. Huckabee was hardly on the radar in New Hampshire. That spelled doom for his ultimate future. If he were to prevail in Iowa, he would likely only be a blip in the south and then gone forever. The "Christian" candidate is seen as a certain loss for the Republicans come 2008. Even the DrudgeReport reported that Democrats were secretely planning to avoid commenting on Huckabee because they saw him as an easy win in a general election.
This was the perfect time for Huckabee to start mending fences with Romney and hope for a returned favor down the road. But with poor advice from his personally selected "know-it-alls," Huckabee again went on the attack. In his most recent speeches, Huckabee portrays himself as an innocent bystander, but then goes on the attack. Ultimately, he looks like a soul with little direction or stability. But, of course, that is the course Romney charted for anyone crossing the line. Trust me, it wasn't chance. If McCain were the challenger or if it was Rudy, the result would have been the same. This approach of putting the other candidate on his heels has been scripted for months, if not years. One thing is certain about Romney, he is not one to leave anything to chance.
One of the most important lessons in national politics is putting your opponent on the defensive so he or she ends up responding to the criticism and not the emphasizing their strong points to voters. Huckabee's "advisers" either don't understand national politics or they are out of their league because Huckabee fell right into the web cast by Romney. It isn't anything personal, it is simply politics. If it wasn't Huckabee, it would have been McCain or Clinton for that matter.
Still, he had a chance to mend fences again to the heir apparant of the Republican Party. He had an opportunity to keep his future alive, but he once again got bad advice. He filmed a counter-attack advertisement on Romney, then called a press conference to show it to all the world. At the last moment, he claims that he changed his mind. Certainly the honorable and smart thing to do.
"I will take the high road," he claimed.
The bad advice? He ran the commercial he had filmed for about 500 reporters - which had the effect of essentially looking again like a hypocrite. Sure, he wasn't going to put it on television, but he was going to put it on television -- via the media. It was a good idea that might have saved him a few dollars, but it earned him more hypocrite marks, this time from the media.
Huckabee had an opportunity to claim a spot on the national nomination ticket. Realistically, he did not and still does not have the money, nor the manpower to prevail nationally. The Beehive Standard Weekly believed his best shot was to run for a spot on the ticket, but that required Huckabee to be mature and realistic about his chances against huge money and a Bush political machine that always gets what it wants. Right now it wants Romney. Huckabee should have gone along for the ride, but alas, stupid is as stupid does.
Huckabee should have rode the wave with a smile and a firm handshake. Behind closed doors he should have been pitching a spot with Romney on the ticket. His strategy should have been a guaranteed spot on the ticket in exchange for attacking McCain and Rudy on social issues.
He had proven that he had power with the Evangelical base which is exactly what he needed to do to justify his place on the ticket. Now he has created a division in the party and the only one left out will be Huckabee.
What has become very clear is the place Romney has at the table with the Bush family and most of the conservative elite. He had to prove his electability, but after Huckabee's attacks, it was clear that Romney could withstand the religious issue and also the label as a liberal from Massachussetts, e.g., flip-flopper, not to be trusted Mormon, etc.
Impressed, the support has been flying in. Not only is it at the expense of Huckabee, who will ultimately be a simple blip on the map, but now he has taken support from Rudy. The rank-and-file still need to get to the same point as the opinion leaders as they are not as familiar with Romney, but clearly the opinion leaders have made their choice.
Only a true populist can defeat Romney now. Huckabee had his shot, as did McCain (in 2000). Rudy will not get the election because he cannot consolidate the conservatives within the party.
Some may not like what Romney has done to defend his position in Iowa, but ultimately most reasonable people will see that Romney is the clear conservative choice, even if they have a hard time voting for a Mormon. Others who are looking for an Evangelical Christian candidate to force America into a theocracy will never be satisfied with anyone other than Pat Robertson. So some may stay home in November of 2008.
A Romney-Huckabee ticket would have captured all conservatives from all walks of life. Now Huckabee has taken his name off the list by failing to see the "forest for the trees." In the end, however, if he cannot see the big picture, perhaps another conservative minister-type from the south can fill that void.
Who will Romney pick as his Vice President? Look for someone political, someone from the south and someone religious. Someone exactly like Huckabee, but who has surrounded him or herself with good advisors who actually understand national politics.
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